Buncha Crap System (BCS)

It’s the holiday season and you have nothing better to do than to read this breakdown of the BCS, so it’s a little longer than a normal blog post, but I think you’ll learn something and hopefully enjoy it:

Could there be a better time to discuss this thing called the BCS than right now? No, especially after President Gee, Ohio State University’s President, came out and basically called every school that’s not a part of a BCS automatic qualifying conference a “little sister of the poor”. It’s clear that you sir understand nothing about college football.

The BCS was created to make a means for determining a “true” college football national champion. Let’s cut the bull. The BCS was formed as a way to increase revenue. Is there any surprise that the biggest schools, enrollment wise, and stadium wise, are members of this thing we call the BCS? No those conferences were allowed to be a part of the BCS because of how good their college football teams are (there's just a hint of sarcasm here), so lets look at em;

Big Ten – Ok, this might be the toughest conferences out there but aside from Ohio State, no one else has more than 2 wins in a BCS game

SEC – Florida and LSU, need I say more? They deserve to be there. They also have the highest winning percentage of any BCS conference in those big games (.737).

Big 12 – Oklahoma, Texas, and Nebraska those are the only real contenders year after year.

Pac-10 – They perform well in the big BCS games (.615) but until this year it had been the USC conference.

The last two conferences can easily be kicked out of the BCS and no one would question it:

Big East – This is a basketball conference! This year Pittsburgh will probably win the conference and get a BCS game with a dismal current record of 6-4. West Virginia who might be the best team in that conference is 7-3! In BCS games they don’t perform up to par, they are .500 in BCS games but 3 of those wins came when Miami was still in the conference.

ACC – why are these guys still in the BCS? They have been in 12 BCS games and have won an amazing 2. They hoist a .167 record with Florida State wining 1 and losing 5, and Virginia Tech wining one and losing 2. Everyone else that made a BCS game lost. But lets keep them in there because of the money those schools bring in.

If you combine the Big East and the ACC, they have a combined BCS winning percentage of .333, or they win 1/3 of the games they play in. Sure that’s not a bad percentage and it is college football but lets look at the WAC and Mountain West combined.

The Mountain west and WAC are both .667 in BCS games, but one of those games placed Boise State (WAC) against TCU (MWC) in a copout game where the BCS was afraid to see 2 BCS automatic qualifiers lose to two non BCS conference schools. When Utah got its BCS games, they won. When TCU got its game, it lost to Boise State. When Boise State got its games it won. When Hawaii got its game, it got destroyed. But 5 out of the 6 games were great entertaining games, is that not more important than money? Apparently not.

Don’t put down teams from non automatic qualifying conferences based on where they play. It’s not really up to them, Boise State can’t just make a call to the ACC and say “hey we want in”, well they can but it won’t put them in the ACC. Speaking of the ACC and Boise State…Virginia Tech is going to win the ACC Costal, this is a team that lost to Boise State to begin the season, we won’t even talk about the D2 school they lost to. Is it not logical then that if a team from a non AQ (automatic qualifying) conference beats the champion of an AQ conference from the same year that they are the better team? Put Boise State, TCU, and Nevada in the Big East or ACC and watch all three teams finish in the top 4 if not win the conference.

The BCS is a load of crap. TCU, Boise State, and Nevada (the 3 highest ranked non AQ teams) are all garbage and couldn’t hold their own weight in a real (BCS) conference. That’s what I’ve been hearing from commentators. I’ve also heard that Boise State is THE BEST all around team in college football this year, BUT they don’t deserve to play in a national title game.

Let’s have a playoff system that has been talked about for a while now but will never happen. Why? Because the money isn't there. Here’s how my system goes:

There are 12 conferences including independents. At the end of the season the #1 and #2 team in that conference play to determine the representative. We now have 12 teams which will be ranked by the same coaches and sportswriters that already rank the teams. Then we reward the #1 and 2 teams by giving them byes. I have attached a table (click on it to make it bigger and more clear) with Rankings as numbers and Games as Letters. It will only take 4 weeks, the length of bowl season already, and you can still have your other bowls on the side.

Let’s not penalize teams like Boise State and TCU for not having the luxury of being in a BCS conference, and by all means lets not put them down and call them our “little sister of the poor” especially not when Boise State or TCU would beat your Ohio State this year.

Boise St. vs. Nevada

So Nevada plays possibly the most complete game of the season and drops a spot in the BCS. Welcome to the BCS era ladies and gentlemen. Does this mean anything? Yes, it means if we lose to Boise St. we will be out of the ranking picture.

If there’s one thing different with this Nevada team this year than from years past its that they can step up to the big game. Look at Cal, BYU, and Fresno State. Sure BYU wasn’t as good as they were thought to be, but that’s a team that we easily would have lost to in the past. We also wouldn’t have beaten Cal in the past, and Fresno State would have been up for grabs. Nevada is not exactly a team that can win when they fall behind, so this year that was a positive, and we almost pulled it out against Hawaii as well. Boise State on the other hand is a completely different story, they might be the best team in the nation, definitely the most complete team if you ask me.

But Boise State has always brought out the best in us, we put up great numbers against them and they don’t seem to look so dominant. In years past we didn’t have the team that could beat them yet it was always close and a nailbiter. This year Nevada HAS the team capable of walking out of Mackay a winner and making talking about Boise State a thing of the past. The sad thing is if we win, we won’t get the recognition we deserve, and well Boise State will be talked about how they just were never a really good team. If we lose, I still don’t see Boise State moving up, even if Oregon and Auburn both lose, I can easily see a 1-loss team moving ahead of Boise State and TCU to play in the national championship game. (I’m working on a nice little piece on the BCS which I’ll post this week)

Judging by the spread for this game, the “experts” think it should be a pretty easy win for the Broncos. I beg to differ. I honestly believe that this game will be decided on the final possession of the game and the difference in score at the end will be 3 points or less.

The key to the game is to get the lead early and play mistake free. If Nevada’s defense can hold the Boise State offense on their first 2 possessions and score on their first 2 possessions, we could be looking at an upset. On the other hand if Boise state does the opposite and holds us on our first 2 possessions, we could be looking at a disappointing night. As far as mistakes, this will be a high intensity game and we could see some fights. Those could be a good thing, what’s a bad thing is Ricky Drake kicking another kickoff out of bounds, what is that? 4 times this year so far?

I don’t expect our defense to hold this team scoreless, but I do know that they are capable of forcing them to punt on 4-6 possessions. On the other hand, our offense, if it gets in rhythm can prove extremely difficult for the Broncos defense to contain. I’m expecting the Nevada secondary to back off a little and allow short passes but try everything to prevent the long ones. Maybe even some 3 deep coverage on 2^nd down?

If Nevada is behind by more than 10 at half it’s going to be a tough game to win. Anything closer than that and its anyone’s game. This might prove to be one of the best games of the year

Final Score Prediction

Someone 45 – Someone 48

Idaho vs. Nevada

There used to be a time not too long ago when playing Idaho meant an easy W. It was a time to get your 2^nd and 3^rd strings some work. That has changed in the last 2 years and Idaho is now actually a decent team.

This game will come down to one thing. Our secondary. Idaho is a pass heavy team and their quarterback is putting up big numbers through the air. Defensively we are rather sound…with the exception of, well the secondary. Dontay Moch has held together that defensive line making it hard to run. The linebacking core is getting ever stronger. Brandon Marshall might have had a little slump at the beginning of the season but every week now he is making HUGE plays. A lot of credit has to go to him and to MLB James-Michael Johnson. They have anchored what used to be a bad part of our defense.

If the secondary can somehow play the whole game like the played the 1^st half of the game against Utah State, this one is in the bag. If they have trouble from the get-go its going to be a nail biter.

I don’t expect our offense to have any trouble putting up points, the only question is will they match us point for point. Nevada needs to get the ball to start the second half, they need to give Idaho the ball to start and the defense MUST force them to a 3-and-out to set the tempo early.

Idaho is no longer a guaranteed game.

Final Score Prediction:

Nevada 51 – Idaho 38

Nevada vs. Hawaii

So you want a shootout? There probably wont be a better one this season.

This weeks game against Hawaii is far from being called a sure thing. Hawaii may not be able to run the ball well, but their passing attack more than makes up for it. Their starting quarterback, Moniz, already has 2,245 yards through the air. For comparison Kaepernick is standing at 1,321. Big deal right? Well here’s the thing, our secondary is starting to struggle again and this game could be a trap.

Defensively this year we turn it up in the second half, evident of most teams scoring the majority of their points in the first. Pressure from the defensive line has to be enough to make Moniz make bad throws because Hawaii’s receivers will beat us down the field. If we can keep those receivers contained however, we could have quite a nice number of sacks on the evening.

Offensively we have to avoid the stupid penalties we’ve been committing as of late. I don’t see their defense being able to stop us, but Kaepernick has thrown 3 interceptions, 1 in each of the last 3 games, this could hurt as here as stopping them on defense will be tough.

There will be critical performances expected of Brandon Marshall and James-Michael Johnson as they will find themselves in man to man coverage on wide receivers. Isaiah Frey needs to turn his head, which he probably won’t. Some how we need to force 3 turnovers or it will be a nail-biter.

I hate to say it but I see this one close till the end.

Final Prediction:

Nevada 55 – Hawaii 45

Total Yards Prediction:

Nevada 660 – Hawaii 595

SJSU vs. Nevada

Sorry for the delay but school comes first.

Besides, there's not much to talk about when it comes to this game. SJSU is wishing they didn't have this game to play.

I see this game being an absolute blowout (I hope).

From the offensive side of the ball expect huge numbers. Kaepernick has been struggling to put up numbers as of late as you can see by that awesome graph I made. On the other hand Vai has been picking up the slack. This is not a problem as it shows how talented we are on the offensive side of the ball. Expect Kaepernick, and Vai to break some huge runs this game. Also expect some short passes to Virgil Green and Brandon Wimberly to end up going for big gains as this SJSU defense has had trouble making tackles in the open field.

Defensively expect the defensive line to have a field day. More big numbers from them as this SJSU offensive line will have a hard time giving their quarterback the time he needs. Expect quick screen passes that our defense will be prepared for. At the linebacking core expect more big numbers from Brandon Marshall and James-Michael Johnson. There is a chance that our secondary will give up a big play or two but I'm not seeing that very likely in this game. Instead I see 1-2 interceptions by our secondary.

Final Score Prediction:

SJSU 3 - Nevada 79

Breaking Down the Nevada Defense

Defense

The one part of this team that should scare you is the defense. Nevada hasn’t been known for having the best defense of late. It might be a little too early to call it different but what we have seen this year is a far cry from what we had done at this point just a year ago.

The key player on this defense is #55 Dontay Moch. He will be the WAC’s all time sack leader and tackle’s for a loss record holder by the end of this season. But Dontay does something other than just tackle and make sacks. He commands a double team. In the previous 3 games, teams have been so scared of him that they have double and even triple-teamed him, letting other players go free. If the rest of the defensive line can capitalize on this, it will be a good season for them stats wise.

The linebacking core is now anchored by MLB #52 James-Michael Johnson who made his way from the OLB position. If there was one move that defensive coordinator Andy Buh made that’s making a lot of sense it’s this. James feels at home in this position and has been putting up great numbers. His partner in crime at this level is #33 Brandon Marshall who hasn’t had the numbers he’s capable of lately but is capable of big things. Look for Brandon to come out of this "minor-slump" and really lock down the rest of the linebacking core. A "minor-slump" in the beginning of the season is better than one at the end, so have faith in him.

The secondary position is where Nevada has been tortured. I hope I don’t have to remind you of the long play after long play they gave up last year. This year they have given up a few but substantially less than last year at this point. #8 Marlon Johnson has been playing great at the CB position, he’s the guy who had a pick-6 last week in case you already forgot who he is. #6 Doyle Miller and #20 Duke Williams are also putting up great pressure on opposing receivers and are looking much better than last year. When I re-watched the Cal game, #28 Isaiah Frey had a few stops which could have easily been called pass interference. If he learns to control his hands a little more, this problem will easily be solved and he too is a crucial part of this secondary. #2 Khalid Wooten has also turned his game up and has great hands, look for him to have 3-6 interceptions on the season.

Watch out for #7 Corbin Louks, this Utah transfer could be a huge part of the Wolf Pack defense that we’ve been missing for some time.

When all is said and done, this defense can get the job done. There is one mistake however that they are still making and could cost us precious penalty yards if not games. The secondary has a hard time looking for the ball. The speed is not there to keep up with some of these receivers they have been facing and because of that they are giving up a step or two and getting out of position to make a real play on the ball. If this doesn’t change there will be a lot of penalties. Other offenses have already figured this out as when they get into the redzone they have attempted passing for the touchdown over running for it knowing that our corners will not look back to find the ball. If they fix this, this defense will be a vast improvement from what it was last year. If there is anything holding us back from getting a BCS game, this is it.

Tomorrow I will break down how to get to that BCS game, it's a lot more difficult than you think.