The Road to The BCS

If you thought getting a BCS game was easy, you were wrong, especially for a team in a non-BCS conference. There are two ways to get this game though if you’re Nevada, 1 of which is unrealistic:

Unrealistic Way

Beat every team from here on out by 50 or more points, with the exception of Boise St.
Have the #1 Offense in the country.
Have the #1 Defense in the country.
We will beat a few teams by 50 this season, but not everyone from here on out. And honestly having the #1 defense in the country just will not happen.

Realistic Way

1. If you’re not a Boise St. fan by now, become one…until November 26th that is. Boise St. needs to be undefeated when they come into Reno. Then we have to beat them, which this team is very capable of doing. If we don’t win this game, it needs to be close; I’m talking a loss by 3-7 points at max.

2. Hope that Colorado State finishes the season .500 at least.

3. Realize that Cal was a good team and were picked as a legitimate team to play in the Rose Bowl this year. As of now they have 5 top 25 ranked teams left to play this season, they need to win 3 of those and they need to finish the season 8-4 at least.

4. Get lucky. There has to be some key losses by teams ranked ahead of us. After week 5, it gets real hard to move up if everyone ahead of you keeps winning. Just because we’re undefeated doesn’t mean we will leap frog a 1-loss team from the SEC, ACC, or Big Ten.

The BCS rankings have just as much to do with what you do as it does with what the teams you beat do. If Cal and Colorado go sub .500 on the season, the validity of our win diminishes, we also need to pray for UNLV to some how start winning games after we beat them (maybe that should have gone in the unrealistic scenario).

We don’t have to go undefeated to get that BCS game but if we do you can consider it almost a guarantee. We got lucky to get the schedule we got this year, now we just have to capitalize on it. With the exception of the 3 key games I will discuss below, we should be heavy favorites to win the rest, and we need to win by more than what we’re expected to win by. If we’re the favorites by 21 going into a game, winning by 14 is unacceptable; we need to win by 21 or more.

If we get that BCS game, please don’t get mad that it will most likely be against TCU…I guess that’s still a BCS game right?

Key Games

If you thought the rest of the schedule was a cake walk between Cal and Boise St. you’re wrong. There are 4 key games which could kill any chance we have. I urge you not to overlook these teams.

1. Beat BYU this coming weekend. If this game were in Reno, I wouldn’t be so worried about it but its not. This BYU team has not put up great numbers as of late and has lost their last 2 games. Those last two games however were against quality opponents and on the road. Provo is a tough place to play, and their fans are loud. If we don’t win this game, it will be extremely difficult to get the game we want.

3. Win on the island. Playing at Hawaii is not an easy task. Regardless of how much Hawaii has been struggling, they can easily pull out a win on their home turf.

4. Win in the valley. Playing Fresno is a tough task. This team is good and if you didn’t know they are on the verge of being ranked as well. I’m seeing this team being undefeated come November 13th. We don’t win this game and we’re done.

5. Beat Boise. This is something I have never experienced and if you ask me, now is the time. Going into this game we could be ranked as high as #9, losing this game puts us out of the top 10, which means no BCS. Winning and we could be sitting at #6 come selection day. The funny thing is Boise St. might still be ranked ahead of us if they lose. I can see us sitting at #7 and them at #6, or us at #6 and them at #5. If that happens hope the BCS doesn’t shaft us by putting us in a BCS game against Boise St. Could that happen? Well they shafted Boise St. and TCU last year and put them in a BCS game against each other. The BCS doesn’t want to see a non-BCS team beat a BCS team.

Nevada vs. BYU

The pack comes into this game ranked #26 in the USA Today poll and #27 in the AP (If USC was not ranked in this poll they would be #26). I would like to thank the voters for these rankings, they could not be any better and I'll explain why.

Nevada travels to Provo for what should be an easy game, but it has the potential to be the complete opposite. On paper Nevada has the Cougars dominated, and the Cougars have looked like a move to D2 would have been a better move than going independent based on what they've done in the past 2 weeks. But Provo is a tough place to play. I've had the honor of watching a BYU game on a neutral field and the fans that traveled were louder than the Nevada fans at last weeks Cal game. And they're sober, which means they are in unison and you don't lose one here and there like some of ours end up in the paddy-wagon.

So why does the ranking mean so much? Because rankings mean everything. If the pack was ranked #25, there would be a sense of "we made it", and with that a little extra confidence and swagger that's not needed yet. Not to mention the added bigger bulls-eye on our backs.

The ranking at #26 is just enough to say "you guys are good, but not sure if you're that good." The bulls-eye is still there but not as big as it could have been. This results in what should be extra motivation to go out there and get what needs to be done, well, done.

As long as the pack doesn't get caught up getting stupid offside penalties (based on crown noise), this should be a walk in the park. Expect ~200 yards from #34 Vai Taua, ~165 from #10 Colin Kaepernick, and ~100 from #29 Lampford Mark. Kaepernick will throw for another 150 but as this game should be over at the end of the 1st, don't expect to see much in the passing game. #85 Virgil Green, and #15 Rishard Matthews will have the bulk of these yards.

Projection:

Nevada 66 - BYU 17