Week 12 Ranking Implications

So unfortunately this week is not the best week to move up in the BCS rankings. Why does this matter? Because next week is Boise State and it would help to be ranked as high as possible so we don’t get 86’d from the Rankings completely. Here’s what I have for this week:

#6 Stanford losing to Cal

#19 Texas A&M losing to #8 Nebraska

#20 Iowa losing to #9 Ohio State

#21 Mississippi State losing to #13 Arkansas

#16 Virginia Tech losing to #24 Miami

After last weeks poor performance by Stanford and the strong performance by Cal, I do think that Cal can beat Stanford this week. That being said I see us moving up 2 spots. I still hold my ground that this Nevada team is better than South Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Missouri. Hopefully the voters see that this week and we

The Road to The BCS

If you thought getting a BCS game was easy, you were wrong, especially for a team in a non-BCS conference. There are two ways to get this game though if you’re Nevada, 1 of which is unrealistic:

Unrealistic Way

Beat every team from here on out by 50 or more points, with the exception of Boise St.
Have the #1 Offense in the country.
Have the #1 Defense in the country.
We will beat a few teams by 50 this season, but not everyone from here on out. And honestly having the #1 defense in the country just will not happen.

Realistic Way

1. If you’re not a Boise St. fan by now, become one…until November 26th that is. Boise St. needs to be undefeated when they come into Reno. Then we have to beat them, which this team is very capable of doing. If we don’t win this game, it needs to be close; I’m talking a loss by 3-7 points at max.

2. Hope that Colorado State finishes the season .500 at least.

3. Realize that Cal was a good team and were picked as a legitimate team to play in the Rose Bowl this year. As of now they have 5 top 25 ranked teams left to play this season, they need to win 3 of those and they need to finish the season 8-4 at least.

4. Get lucky. There has to be some key losses by teams ranked ahead of us. After week 5, it gets real hard to move up if everyone ahead of you keeps winning. Just because we’re undefeated doesn’t mean we will leap frog a 1-loss team from the SEC, ACC, or Big Ten.

The BCS rankings have just as much to do with what you do as it does with what the teams you beat do. If Cal and Colorado go sub .500 on the season, the validity of our win diminishes, we also need to pray for UNLV to some how start winning games after we beat them (maybe that should have gone in the unrealistic scenario).

We don’t have to go undefeated to get that BCS game but if we do you can consider it almost a guarantee. We got lucky to get the schedule we got this year, now we just have to capitalize on it. With the exception of the 3 key games I will discuss below, we should be heavy favorites to win the rest, and we need to win by more than what we’re expected to win by. If we’re the favorites by 21 going into a game, winning by 14 is unacceptable; we need to win by 21 or more.

If we get that BCS game, please don’t get mad that it will most likely be against TCU…I guess that’s still a BCS game right?

Key Games

If you thought the rest of the schedule was a cake walk between Cal and Boise St. you’re wrong. There are 4 key games which could kill any chance we have. I urge you not to overlook these teams.

1. Beat BYU this coming weekend. If this game were in Reno, I wouldn’t be so worried about it but its not. This BYU team has not put up great numbers as of late and has lost their last 2 games. Those last two games however were against quality opponents and on the road. Provo is a tough place to play, and their fans are loud. If we don’t win this game, it will be extremely difficult to get the game we want.

3. Win on the island. Playing at Hawaii is not an easy task. Regardless of how much Hawaii has been struggling, they can easily pull out a win on their home turf.

4. Win in the valley. Playing Fresno is a tough task. This team is good and if you didn’t know they are on the verge of being ranked as well. I’m seeing this team being undefeated come November 13th. We don’t win this game and we’re done.

5. Beat Boise. This is something I have never experienced and if you ask me, now is the time. Going into this game we could be ranked as high as #9, losing this game puts us out of the top 10, which means no BCS. Winning and we could be sitting at #6 come selection day. The funny thing is Boise St. might still be ranked ahead of us if they lose. I can see us sitting at #7 and them at #6, or us at #6 and them at #5. If that happens hope the BCS doesn’t shaft us by putting us in a BCS game against Boise St. Could that happen? Well they shafted Boise St. and TCU last year and put them in a BCS game against each other. The BCS doesn’t want to see a non-BCS team beat a BCS team.

Cal vs. Nevada recap

First of all I want to say congratulations to the team and thanks to the fans. In all my years of Nevada football, I can not remember very many times when the fans were more into the game than they were last night. That being said I have a few things to get off my chest.

1. When Cal tied the game at 7-7, a girl behind me said "This is a whole bunch of sucks. Why did we even come to the game, we're going to lose." First of all, it's the 1st quarter, second of all why did you come to the game if you're just going to be negative?

2. His name is pronounced Kap - er - nick. I'm tired of hearing kapernikus, coppernick, kapernis, and many others. Learn your team's quarterbacks' name.

3. When we are up by 10 in the second quarter, it's too early to start chanting "overrated".

4. When OUR offense is in the redzone, coming into the student section, you don't get as loud as you can. You be quiet so the players can hear the audibles that need to be made.

5. It pissed me off to hear everyone on campus talking about how "we are going to get smoked" and we have no shot of winning before the game, and then after the game everyone is saying how amazing we are. I don't want Nevada to be a band wagon team. If you want to say Nevada is amazing, then come BYU and Boise st., I better not hear "we don't stand a chance".

Now about the game. I did not see it being a blowout, I thought there was a 0.01% chance that that could have happened and I'm sorry for not having more faith in the team. Why do I call it a blowout? Because that's what it was. If it weren't for 2 huge rushing plays given up, and 1 unfortunate fumble by Kaepernick (#10) giving them the ball in the redzone, the score would have been 59 - 10. But mistakes happen and you have to learn from them.

The secondary played pretty damn well against the pass, not great but much better than previous.

Oh and to the Cal fans who kept bringing up that they have the #1 defense in the country? I told you that it's too early to use statistics to make a statement in this game. You played U.C. Davis, the worst team in the FCS. The Nevada offense was methodical and persistent, with hardly any resistance put up from the Cal defense. Sorry, but you're not even close to the #1 ranked defense.

Conversation for the BYU game coming soon.

Picture credit goes to my buddy B.Y.. And for the record, I called Nevada scoring 54 in the game and I'm kinda pissed I was off by 2, where was that safety when we needed it ;)

Cal vs. Nevada only a day away

There's been a lot of talk on some forums that Nevada won't even get 100 yards on the ground in this game. Are you nuts? This is the number one rushing attack in the nation, we only lost our second string running back past year and the new offensive linemen are quickly earning their place in the union. The fact that people think Cal's defense can completely stop the rush is like saying that a 2-inch thick piece of glass will stop a train traveling 60mph. It won't happen. Sure it will put up a good fight but let's be real here.

Amazingly that's not what I want to talk about. I want to talk about the fans and how I find us to have some of the worst fans there are. Now coming from Vegas I know where not the worst but were definitely not where we should be for having the great team that we have. It's gotten better this year but tomorrow will be the real test. The place is sold out, but how heavy is Cal traveling? Is it going to be another Boise st. game where they take over some of our sections? Great fans would never let that happen.

A message to the fans. Tomorrows game is huge. This is a team that WILL capitalize on ANY mistake we make. This means that if it's the 3rd quarter and we're up by 21, on their 3rd downs you better be on your feet and loud. This also means unless we're up by 50 with 5 minutes left in the game...don't leave. We need you. The team needs you. This city needs you.

This season has the potential to be the greatest season in Nevada football history for a long time, so take pride in it and let everyone know that you were there this year for the team. It's time we had the fans this team deserves to have.

Cal vs. Nevada

Let's talk football. This Friday is the game that can make or break the season, up to this point that is. The Pack must go into this game like the season depends on it because it does. I'm also getting tired of hearing people say how the team is going to get "smoked" on Friday by a far superior team. Guess what? they are not far superior, I find these two teams to be very evenly matched. I think it's a little too early to look at scoring and defensive statistics so we won't go there. What I am going to talk about is what needs to happen.

This game is going to be close, I see it a one-possession game going into the 4th quarter. This favors the Wolf Pack due to their depth at running back, after all we are a ground and pound team. But we can not rely on the running game to win the game for us, we have to use the running game to open up the passing game which will be crucial. Virgil Green is arguably one of the best catching tight-end's in college football which will open up the passing game even more, another plus. If you followed the Pack last year, you know who Brandon Wimberly is, unfortunately he hasn't been utilized much this year so far, but there hasn't been a need to. He will be a huge impact on this game's outcome. Expect to see at least 7 receptions from him and somewhere around 100 yards out of him. If the Bears give him any open space, they will quickly see what he can do.

I don't see the running game having any problems in this week's match-up. Vai will get his 100 yards and kaepernick will add on another 100.

The biggest question is the defense. There is no secret that we have had a problem with the secondary but last week was a shimmer of hope. Sure we played a lesser opponent, but in previous years even that opponent would have gotten 2-3 long passes good enough for 6. The secondary last week stood its ground and if they play that good this week, we might be talking about how "we killed Cal" last weekend. Realistically though, they will give up 2 long plays, but that's better than giving up 5. The rest of the defense will play strong and cause the Bear's offense a lot of trouble. Look for MLB #52 James-Michael Johnson and OLB #33 Brandon Marshall to make big stops and big plays once again.

Outcome?

If you still think "Nevada is going to get smoked" just look at the betting lines for this game. I don't make these numbers, professional odds-makers do and they are saying Cal wins BUT only by 3 points. Now look at the over/under for this game, they also think there will be 110 points on the scoreboard by the end of regulation. If you do the math you'll see it doesn't add up, but with a little understanding you can see that they are calling the outcome of the game:

Cal 57 - Nevada 53

What's my call?

When it comes down to it, the Nevada defense is underrated, I'm not saying they are great, I'm saying they are underrated. The defense will make a late stand when they need to and the offense will score one more touchdown to put the game away in the last 2 minutes.

Cal 45 - Nevada 54