Nevada vs. La Tech

With one game left in the season, Nevada is on pace to finish its best season in history since it’s joined the ranks of the division 1 elite. At 11-1 this Nevada team has shown that it is capable of matching up against any team out there on any given Saturday. Will we ever get that respect? Probably not, but the real fans, the coaches, and the players know it…and that’s all that matters.

Nevada has already traveled as far west as it can go this season (Hawaii), and now it will go as far east as a WAC opponent will let them (Louisiana). Much like Boise State has had Nevada’s number over the past few years; Nevada has had La Tech’s.

The only real question going into this game is how much will Colin Kaepernick play. On the verge of a few more records the question is, does Ault put him in a position to get the records and set his place in history more-so than he already has, or does he save his star quarterback for a bowl game? Either way expect him to play the first half and put up, dare I say Heisman like numbers?

Another question going into this game is what defense will show up. Will it be the defense that allowed Boise State 24 first half points, which by all means is respectable, or will it be the 2^nd half defense that held Boise State to 8 rushing yards? Either way the game should be pretty much in hand, but for ranking sake we need the 2^nd half defense to be there.

Last game we saw great defense from Duke Williams who made a great 1-on-1 tackle in the open field saving a critical first down. Brandon Marshall and James-Michael Johnson also kept their games up and have become one of the best linebacking duo’s in college football this year. But what’s more impressive is #58 Ryan Coulson and the already brilliant Dontay Moch. Both of them are defensive linemen and on every play that we give up for 20 or more yards, one of these two is down field in position to make the tackle. Coming from two “hog-mollies” that’s down right impressive. This defense is fast and outrunning them is a tough task to do, breaking tackles on the other hand might be a bit easier, evident in the Boise State game.

As far as our offense goes we showed last week why we are one of the best offenses in the nation. The pistol went in fully loaded and tore apart one of the best defenses in the country. After a slow start, it seemed like there was nothing that could be done to stop Colin Kaepernick. Unlike previous Boise State games, he took it to the air and lit up their secondary much like we have been lit up in the past. I don’t expect much of a stand from the bulldogs this weekend, if Nevada can tire out Boise State’s defense, it can put La Tech’s to sleep.

Now you might hear that this team is looking past La Tech and they feel like they can do nothing wrong but there’s really nothing to look past. Going into this game a bowl game is guaranteed, which and against whom we will know after this weekend. What’s not is a ring and that trophy. Utah State doesn’t stand a chance entering the smurf turf of Boise. Hawaii hosts UNLV which isn’t a conference opponent so they will finish the season with a ring guaranteed. If Nevada wants that ring, it will take a win against La Tech and they know that. Last week was Nevada’s shining moment, but this week is their championship moment. A win against Boise State means nothing to this team unless there’s a ring associated with it at the end.

I’m expecting a valiant effort from La Tech, but with the swag this Nevada team is walking around with, I expect it too be too little too late. Unfortunately I still don’t see us getting that shut-out. But I do think we will see Mike Ball finally run back a kick-off, unfortunately I see them doing the same thing.

Final Score Prediction

Nevada 48 – La Tech 17

Nevada vs. Fresno State Recap

In a game that was more than a nail-biter, we saw a Nevada team that we needed to see. This team has not trailed much this season, in fact when we trail this season we usually lose, the only game we trailed was the game against Hawaii. Yes it would have been nice to go into Fresno and completely demolish them, but that’s not what happened. The team was forced to stay in the game which is what will happen come November 26^th (have you circled this date yet on your calendars?).

The defense looked sluggish at times but made plays when they needed to be made. Once again there was strong dominating performances from James-Michael Johnson, Brandon Marshall, and Dontay Moch. I hope you caught the beginning of this game because on Fresno’s first drive of the game Dontay leveled a receiver about 20 yards from the line of scrimmage. Just the fact that a lineman made the tackle that far down the field is impressive, but Dontay flat out laid some wood. The kid runs a 4.2 40-yard dash! More-so the only major problems with the defense were caused by play calling, not players. Sure there was a few missed tackles but other than that I felt like the defense played great.

Offensively it looked like we struggled at times but in the end we made the plays we needed to make. Now lets talk about how bad of a decision Kaepernick’s interception was! I mean he basically threw that into double coverage to a receiver that was blanketed! Yea, I’m sorry but that was a GREAT decision and its something that every Nevada fan should be happy with. Why? You’re either thinking I’m on crack right now or that I’m being sarcastic right?

Well I’m not. That decision shows confidence in Kaepernick that his receivers can make the catch and more importantly that he can put the ball where it needs to be! Now I’ve watched that play probably 10 times over and Malcolm Shepherd should have made that catch.

This game showed we can come from behind and that we don’t get rattled easily. Even the Hawaii game showed us this except we couldn’t come back and win that one. This team has learned what it needs to do to win and if I’m Boise St., I am definitely a little worried about November 26^th. I’m just wondering…will Brandon Wimberly, probably the best wide receiver on this team, get a touchdown this year?

I’m still predicting #18 in the BCS standings!

Idaho vs. Nevada Recap

Nevada ranked 18^th?

Is it possible?

I think come tomorrow’s BCS selection show we might just see Nevada sitting at #18. Here’s why: #’s 22,21,19,15, and 12 lost. I think those 5 teams will fall below us in the BCS rankings. #’s 8,6, and 5 also lost but I do not think they will fall below us.

Here’s another thing, Nevada played its best game to date this season. Yes I know that one can argue that our best game was against Cal, but lets be honest, this was complete domination. Nevada racked up 844 yards of total offense, the highest number put up by any team this season. Nevada also used it’s 3^rd string quarterback on it’s final possession.

Now I know Idaho isn’t exactly a great team but we did what we’re supposed to do, pull ahead and keep on moving forward. Our special teams played like crap at times but somehow found a way to remedy their mistakes. Nevada forced 4 turnovers which is what we were supposed to do.

The play of Kaepernick could not have been better. I also want to point out how well Brandon Wimberly, James-Michael Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Duke Williams, Rishard Matthews, Malcolm Shepherd, Lampford Mark, Vai taua, and Mike Ball played in this game. It is rare for 10 players to shine the way these 10 did today. Now if only Isaiah Frey would turn his head more often and join this group.

What I saw today out of this team was a team that DESERVES to be ranked and could compete with every team in the nation. If this kind of play keeps up, we could be seeing a #3 Boise St. vs #14/15 Nevada matchup come November 26^th that should have the Broncos a little weary. As it is right now, I don’t see the spread being more than 7pts. Lets hope that this play keeps up through next week at Fresno St, another tough opponent that we can’t look beyond.

And just in case anyone is wondering, had Nevada not have lost to Hawaii, we could be talking about a team that would most likely be ranked #6 or 7 tomorrow.

Idaho vs. Nevada

There used to be a time not too long ago when playing Idaho meant an easy W. It was a time to get your 2^nd and 3^rd strings some work. That has changed in the last 2 years and Idaho is now actually a decent team.

This game will come down to one thing. Our secondary. Idaho is a pass heavy team and their quarterback is putting up big numbers through the air. Defensively we are rather sound…with the exception of, well the secondary. Dontay Moch has held together that defensive line making it hard to run. The linebacking core is getting ever stronger. Brandon Marshall might have had a little slump at the beginning of the season but every week now he is making HUGE plays. A lot of credit has to go to him and to MLB James-Michael Johnson. They have anchored what used to be a bad part of our defense.

If the secondary can somehow play the whole game like the played the 1^st half of the game against Utah State, this one is in the bag. If they have trouble from the get-go its going to be a nail biter.

I don’t expect our offense to have any trouble putting up points, the only question is will they match us point for point. Nevada needs to get the ball to start the second half, they need to give Idaho the ball to start and the defense MUST force them to a 3-and-out to set the tempo early.

Idaho is no longer a guaranteed game.

Final Score Prediction:

Nevada 51 – Idaho 38

Nevada vs. Hawaii

So you want a shootout? There probably wont be a better one this season.

This weeks game against Hawaii is far from being called a sure thing. Hawaii may not be able to run the ball well, but their passing attack more than makes up for it. Their starting quarterback, Moniz, already has 2,245 yards through the air. For comparison Kaepernick is standing at 1,321. Big deal right? Well here’s the thing, our secondary is starting to struggle again and this game could be a trap.

Defensively this year we turn it up in the second half, evident of most teams scoring the majority of their points in the first. Pressure from the defensive line has to be enough to make Moniz make bad throws because Hawaii’s receivers will beat us down the field. If we can keep those receivers contained however, we could have quite a nice number of sacks on the evening.

Offensively we have to avoid the stupid penalties we’ve been committing as of late. I don’t see their defense being able to stop us, but Kaepernick has thrown 3 interceptions, 1 in each of the last 3 games, this could hurt as here as stopping them on defense will be tough.

There will be critical performances expected of Brandon Marshall and James-Michael Johnson as they will find themselves in man to man coverage on wide receivers. Isaiah Frey needs to turn his head, which he probably won’t. Some how we need to force 3 turnovers or it will be a nail-biter.

I hate to say it but I see this one close till the end.

Final Prediction:

Nevada 55 – Hawaii 45

Total Yards Prediction:

Nevada 660 – Hawaii 595

SJSU vs. Nevada

Sorry for the delay but school comes first.

Besides, there's not much to talk about when it comes to this game. SJSU is wishing they didn't have this game to play.

I see this game being an absolute blowout (I hope).

From the offensive side of the ball expect huge numbers. Kaepernick has been struggling to put up numbers as of late as you can see by that awesome graph I made. On the other hand Vai has been picking up the slack. This is not a problem as it shows how talented we are on the offensive side of the ball. Expect Kaepernick, and Vai to break some huge runs this game. Also expect some short passes to Virgil Green and Brandon Wimberly to end up going for big gains as this SJSU defense has had trouble making tackles in the open field.

Defensively expect the defensive line to have a field day. More big numbers from them as this SJSU offensive line will have a hard time giving their quarterback the time he needs. Expect quick screen passes that our defense will be prepared for. At the linebacking core expect more big numbers from Brandon Marshall and James-Michael Johnson. There is a chance that our secondary will give up a big play or two but I'm not seeing that very likely in this game. Instead I see 1-2 interceptions by our secondary.

Final Score Prediction:

SJSU 3 - Nevada 79

Breaking Down the Nevada Defense

Defense

The one part of this team that should scare you is the defense. Nevada hasn’t been known for having the best defense of late. It might be a little too early to call it different but what we have seen this year is a far cry from what we had done at this point just a year ago.

The key player on this defense is #55 Dontay Moch. He will be the WAC’s all time sack leader and tackle’s for a loss record holder by the end of this season. But Dontay does something other than just tackle and make sacks. He commands a double team. In the previous 3 games, teams have been so scared of him that they have double and even triple-teamed him, letting other players go free. If the rest of the defensive line can capitalize on this, it will be a good season for them stats wise.

The linebacking core is now anchored by MLB #52 James-Michael Johnson who made his way from the OLB position. If there was one move that defensive coordinator Andy Buh made that’s making a lot of sense it’s this. James feels at home in this position and has been putting up great numbers. His partner in crime at this level is #33 Brandon Marshall who hasn’t had the numbers he’s capable of lately but is capable of big things. Look for Brandon to come out of this "minor-slump" and really lock down the rest of the linebacking core. A "minor-slump" in the beginning of the season is better than one at the end, so have faith in him.

The secondary position is where Nevada has been tortured. I hope I don’t have to remind you of the long play after long play they gave up last year. This year they have given up a few but substantially less than last year at this point. #8 Marlon Johnson has been playing great at the CB position, he’s the guy who had a pick-6 last week in case you already forgot who he is. #6 Doyle Miller and #20 Duke Williams are also putting up great pressure on opposing receivers and are looking much better than last year. When I re-watched the Cal game, #28 Isaiah Frey had a few stops which could have easily been called pass interference. If he learns to control his hands a little more, this problem will easily be solved and he too is a crucial part of this secondary. #2 Khalid Wooten has also turned his game up and has great hands, look for him to have 3-6 interceptions on the season.

Watch out for #7 Corbin Louks, this Utah transfer could be a huge part of the Wolf Pack defense that we’ve been missing for some time.

When all is said and done, this defense can get the job done. There is one mistake however that they are still making and could cost us precious penalty yards if not games. The secondary has a hard time looking for the ball. The speed is not there to keep up with some of these receivers they have been facing and because of that they are giving up a step or two and getting out of position to make a real play on the ball. If this doesn’t change there will be a lot of penalties. Other offenses have already figured this out as when they get into the redzone they have attempted passing for the touchdown over running for it knowing that our corners will not look back to find the ball. If they fix this, this defense will be a vast improvement from what it was last year. If there is anything holding us back from getting a BCS game, this is it.

Tomorrow I will break down how to get to that BCS game, it's a lot more difficult than you think.

Cal vs. Nevada

Let's talk football. This Friday is the game that can make or break the season, up to this point that is. The Pack must go into this game like the season depends on it because it does. I'm also getting tired of hearing people say how the team is going to get "smoked" on Friday by a far superior team. Guess what? they are not far superior, I find these two teams to be very evenly matched. I think it's a little too early to look at scoring and defensive statistics so we won't go there. What I am going to talk about is what needs to happen.

This game is going to be close, I see it a one-possession game going into the 4th quarter. This favors the Wolf Pack due to their depth at running back, after all we are a ground and pound team. But we can not rely on the running game to win the game for us, we have to use the running game to open up the passing game which will be crucial. Virgil Green is arguably one of the best catching tight-end's in college football which will open up the passing game even more, another plus. If you followed the Pack last year, you know who Brandon Wimberly is, unfortunately he hasn't been utilized much this year so far, but there hasn't been a need to. He will be a huge impact on this game's outcome. Expect to see at least 7 receptions from him and somewhere around 100 yards out of him. If the Bears give him any open space, they will quickly see what he can do.

I don't see the running game having any problems in this week's match-up. Vai will get his 100 yards and kaepernick will add on another 100.

The biggest question is the defense. There is no secret that we have had a problem with the secondary but last week was a shimmer of hope. Sure we played a lesser opponent, but in previous years even that opponent would have gotten 2-3 long passes good enough for 6. The secondary last week stood its ground and if they play that good this week, we might be talking about how "we killed Cal" last weekend. Realistically though, they will give up 2 long plays, but that's better than giving up 5. The rest of the defense will play strong and cause the Bear's offense a lot of trouble. Look for MLB #52 James-Michael Johnson and OLB #33 Brandon Marshall to make big stops and big plays once again.

Outcome?

If you still think "Nevada is going to get smoked" just look at the betting lines for this game. I don't make these numbers, professional odds-makers do and they are saying Cal wins BUT only by 3 points. Now look at the over/under for this game, they also think there will be 110 points on the scoreboard by the end of regulation. If you do the math you'll see it doesn't add up, but with a little understanding you can see that they are calling the outcome of the game:

Cal 57 - Nevada 53

What's my call?

When it comes down to it, the Nevada defense is underrated, I'm not saying they are great, I'm saying they are underrated. The defense will make a late stand when they need to and the offense will score one more touchdown to put the game away in the last 2 minutes.

Cal 45 - Nevada 54