If you thought getting a BCS game was easy, you were wrong, especially for a team in a non-BCS conference. There are two ways to get this game though if you’re Nevada, 1 of which is unrealistic:
Beat every team from here on out by 50 or more points, with the exception of Boise St.
Have the #1 Offense in the country.
Have the #1 Defense in the country.
We will beat a few teams by 50 this season, but not everyone from here on out. And honestly having the #1 defense in the country just will not happen.
1. If you’re not a Boise St. fan by now, become one…until November 26th that is. Boise St. needs to be undefeated when they come into Reno. Then we have to beat them, which this team is very capable of doing. If we don’t win this game, it needs to be close; I’m talking a loss by 3-7 points at max.
2. Hope that Colorado State finishes the season .500 at least.
3. Realize that Cal was a good team and were picked as a legitimate team to play in the Rose Bowl this year. As of now they have 5 top 25 ranked teams left to play this season, they need to win 3 of those and they need to finish the season 8-4 at least.
4. Get lucky. There has to be some key losses by teams ranked ahead of us. After week 5, it gets real hard to move up if everyone ahead of you keeps winning. Just because we’re undefeated doesn’t mean we will leap frog a 1-loss team from the SEC, ACC, or Big Ten.
The BCS rankings have just as much to do with what you do as it does with what the teams you beat do. If Cal and Colorado go sub .500 on the season, the validity of our win diminishes, we also need to pray for UNLV to some how start winning games after we beat them (maybe that should have gone in the unrealistic scenario).
We don’t have to go undefeated to get that BCS game but if we do you can consider it almost a guarantee. We got lucky to get the schedule we got this year, now we just have to capitalize on it. With the exception of the 3 key games I will discuss below, we should be heavy favorites to win the rest, and we need to win by more than what we’re expected to win by. If we’re the favorites by 21 going into a game, winning by 14 is unacceptable; we need to win by 21 or more.
If we get that BCS game, please don’t get mad that it will most likely be against TCU…I guess that’s still a BCS game right?
If you thought the rest of the schedule was a cake walk between Cal and Boise St. you’re wrong. There are 4 key games which could kill any chance we have. I urge you not to overlook these teams.
1. Beat BYU this coming weekend. If this game were in Reno, I wouldn’t be so worried about it but its not. This BYU team has not put up great numbers as of late and has lost their last 2 games. Those last two games however were against quality opponents and on the road. Provo is a tough place to play, and their fans are loud. If we don’t win this game, it will be extremely difficult to get the game we want.
3. Win on the island. Playing at Hawaii is not an easy task. Regardless of how much Hawaii has been struggling, they can easily pull out a win on their home turf.
4. Win in the valley. Playing Fresno is a tough task. This team is good and if you didn’t know they are on the verge of being ranked as well. I’m seeing this team being undefeated come November 13th. We don’t win this game and we’re done.
5. Beat Boise. This is something I have never experienced and if you ask me, now is the time. Going into this game we could be ranked as high as #9, losing this game puts us out of the top 10, which means no BCS. Winning and we could be sitting at #6 come selection day. The funny thing is Boise St. might still be ranked ahead of us if they lose. I can see us sitting at #7 and them at #6, or us at #6 and them at #5. If that happens hope the BCS doesn’t shaft us by putting us in a BCS game against Boise St. Could that happen? Well they shafted Boise St. and TCU last year and put them in a BCS game against each other. The BCS doesn’t want to see a non-BCS team beat a BCS team.